We are a society enthralled with speed. How fast can you do it? How fast can you run? How fast is that really fast car?
Here is a champion racehorse, Dr Fager, setting a world record for speed. He was blistering fast at the highest level of competition there is. Nobody ever disputed that. But, he also liked to chase rabbits to his detriment.
Speed is important. Don't get me wrong. If there is a rabbit at the end of the field, and two predators are chasing it, both with an equal starting point, generally, the one who runs faster to it gets to kill and eat the rabbit. If the prey is faster than the predator, then they get away, sometimes.
If only life was that simple though. What about if the faster predator has a bad ankle, and he gets there first this time, but next time, he cant run as fast because he has an injury or soreness issues?
Dr Fager's biggest rival, Damascus, a great horse with a lot of speed in his own right, found a way to beat Dr Fager twice. But he paid a price for that, and his last lifetime race, he finished dead last and never raced again. It was a lot of stress to try and run with a horse like Dr Fager, the entire race.
What if the slower predator takes a different route, and that gets him there faster? Damuscus beat Dr Fager twice, because he laid back, and had a stablemate, what they call a rabbit, run out early and force Dr Fager to chase him...into submission.
What if there is now a lake in the middle of the route to the rabbit, and the faster predator cant swim? Sometimes, a pack of horses get in the way of the faster horse and he has no way to use his speed until its too late and the rabbit has been killed by his competitor.
What if the faster predator just isn't that hungry, so he decides during the chase that he cant be bothered working for it, and just eases up, or gives up? Hedovar, Damascus's stablemate, could run very fast for a short distance. He wasn't trying to get the rabbit at the wire, he was the rabbit and his desire and ability were not to win, but to lead.
And finally, what if there is a battle along the way, and the slower predator decides to eat, or kill, or deter the faster predator and speed isn't that important when you have no competition? When Damascus had to run on his own merit against Dr Fager, he wilted and Dr Fager ate him alive, with Damuscus even losing 2nd place to a much inferior opponent.
From Wikipedia.
Dr. Fager made 22 starts, winning 18 times with two second-place finishes and one show. The only time he was out of the money was as a result of a disqualification in the Jersey Derby, in which he finished first. Only three horses ever finished in front of Dr. Fager: Champion juvenile male Successor, Horse of the Year Damascus, and Horse of the Year Buckpasser. His headstrong nature was considered his only weakness as a racehorse.
In horse racing, speed is important. When I first began going to the horse races, I was all about speed. I would circle the horses with the faster times, the fastest last quarter, and expect they had an edge. In reality, they didn't win more than their share when only this variable was in play. It didn't take me long to figure out that speed was one factor, among many.
What I have found to be most important with regard to speed, and this goes for life as well as horse racing, is what happens when a horse is asked to run the fastest he can run, and is then asked to repeat it. Other factors then come into play. Regression/progression. Lameness/wear and tear. Desire to persevere under adverse conditions. Breeding and genealogy. Tactics of the other participants and the connections of the horse. Fitness. Durability.
Putting more than a minor emphasis on speed is a recipe for failure. Sure, its important, and generally a slower horse cannot beat a faster horse if the faster horse is capable on that day of running to the top speed. In the same way a mid size American car cannot out drag a Ferrari. Unless the Ferrari gets a flat tire, or has a drunk driver, or runs out of gas. Or takes a wrong turn and doesn't finish the race.
For me, I use speed solely as a factor to judge what will happen next, not as what the horse can do, but they are likely to do the next time based on how others who have similar traits and actions have performed under similar circumstances.
Dr Fager was blistering fast, and there wasn't a horse that could run with him for more than a mile if it was just about his speed. But he also had a grave weakness, and that was that he would run as fast as he can at the start and not let up if he was challenged. He insisted on leading. For him, it was more important to lead than to finish first, or get the rabbit. So, knowing that, another trainer ran a rabbit against him, a horse named Hedovar that had no intention of winning, but could soften him up for his stablemate Damascus, who couldn't beat Dr Fager straight up, but could if he had a tag team partner who would take one for the team. That is exactly how it played out twice. Speed wasn't enough. Tactics and attitude mattered more in this case.
I have included Dr Fager's world record performance in 1968 at the start of the blog, and also the 1967 Woodward above, where a rabbit wore him down and that ones stablemate got a tarnished win. But as a bettor, a win is a win and its not for us to debate the fair or unfair tactics the participants deploy. We are there to figure out what predator kills the rabbit. We only get money to eat if WE do that.
You can take this analogy and apply it to any facet of life.
That talented employee who just doesn't try hard or care usually will not outperform others who at least put in effort and want to succeed.
That friend that is all gangbusters in the first month of the friendship, but runs out of gas and isn't reliable when you need them a year or 5 from now.
That cant miss jock in your school who starts to get fat, eat poorly and not take care of his injuries properly and is an out of shape 40 year old who cant even play anymore.
They say speed kills. Sometimes it gets there first and makes the kill. Other times, it kills itself. Those that bet on horses and think that speed is the top factor will only kill themselves. Because the fact is, its not a winning variable from a betting perspective. Bet on the complete horse, not just the fastest one.
If you watch the above video, the 1991 Haskell Invitational handicap, you will note most of the experts thinking that the heavy favorite, Hansel, was just about impossible to beat, because he was too fast for them, and one of the talking heads even went as far as to show how much better Hansel's Beyer Numbers were than the rest. That number is just a pure representation of speed, and considers no other factors. Those that watched Hansel could see he had a lameness issue on his right front, and in the race after this, he actually blew out his right ankle completely and never raced again. The smart jockey would pin him to the rail and make him put pressure on his right front, and that is exactly what happened in this race. Speed wasn't enough to win this race for the speediest horse.
Be careful using Beyer Numbers, or any other speed determining figure. While they are useful and accurate, they are just a speed figure. Not a performance figure or prediction of what speed the horse will produce the next time. When they might not be as capable or tactical.
Now, if you can figure out a performance figure, and then come up with one that you feel is accurate to represent how the horse will perform in the next start, then you have a winning variable.
Understanding flaws is a big part of that. Every horse, every person, has a flaw. Dr Fager's was his stubborn will to lead and control. This from his owner, trainer and breeder, the legendary John Nerud.
"He was very easy to train, a very willing and smart horse," said Nerud. "He also was very sensitive. He didn't want you to raise your voice to him, and he didn't want anyone whipping him. If something didn't suit Dr. Fager, he would let you know immediately."
What didn't suit him was being challenged, even when fighting that battle meant he was probably going to lose the war to someone else.
That is my current task, and one I had accomplished playing the standardbreds, but I gave up playing those because the betting factors were not acceptable anymore. In the T breds, if you can figure out accurately the future performance, or current form, then you have a winning formula. That takes time. Not speed, to figure that out.
Its more important to get it right than it is to do it fast. Getting it wrong, faster than the next guy, gets you nothing. There is an old saying in horse racing. They don't pay the horse that leads at the half anything. They pay the winner who crosses the line first. How he does that isn't as important as that he does it.
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