I have always been fascinated with math. And very good at it. I like to figure out percentages and make decisions based on them. At times, when I review the mistakes I have made in my life, I think I've made a bad decision which became a bad result because I didn't play the percentage that should have been obvious to me and in my favor. Nobody is perfect and we all make mistakes. No matter how much I like to think otherwise, in spite of my percentage decisions, I will make more mistakes in the future.
To me, life is all about possibility, probability and
percentages. We make decisions in life, and we do that based on the
likelihood of success.
If you play Lexulous enough, and pay attention while doing it, you learn which are the percentage plays and which are not. You won't win every time with the percentage move you make, but you will most of the time. Of course, life is like that as well.
Should I cross the road?
Will I likely get there before that car reaches me?
When you answer those questions you make a decision based on it. If you don't think you will make it then you just wait for a better opportunity. It is one of those decisions where you can't be wrong. You can't probably beat that car to the spot, because it is a car moving at a rapid speed, and you are a person with limited speed and size. The car will win. So, unless you are certain you will win that contest, you wait for another opportunity. You can't be wrong even once in this case. You figured out the percentages and realized that they were against you and unless you are 100% certain, or have a secret death wish you don't cross the road.
Most decisions in life are not so clear cut.
Can I trust
that friend? Probably. I
usually make good decisions there. But, I have been wrong before. People I have trusted as friends have screwed me before. But, many more haven't.
that girl the right one for me? I think so. It seems so. But, the
divorce rate is so high. Maybe those people just made bad decisions and didn't weigh the percentages. What if I am wrong?
Should I change my job, give up the security for a better opportunity? Will I end up richer, happier and more satisfied? Or poorer, unhappy and distraught?
We do the best we can with
the information we have and the intellect we have to work with.
In Lexulous, the decisions are obviously not so clear cut or life changing and/or threatening, but the process is the same. If I hold that bingo, or wait for a letter to complete it, what is the likelihood that it will work out for me? You make this decision based on past experience and basic laws of averages of supply and demand, and at times, luck. Probably is the best guide you can use.
There is only one Z and Q. If you need either of those to make your move, it is a low percentage probability that you will get it and it is probably wise not to. If you need a vowel, of which there are many, it is probably a wise move. On top of that, you can quickly count how many are left by checking the board to see, and then figuring out the likelihood you will get one in the time needed.
This is very much like counting cards in Blackjack. Not everyone can do it, not everyone wants to do it, but it can be done. Of course, there are levels to which you can do it. Some can narrow it down to a very high probability, almost a certainty, while others can sort of do it and make it strong possibility. Not everyone makes informed decisions, and not everyone wants to. I do.
The lesson for today is that you can and should make decisions based on likely outcomes. You do this because you have some sort of experience and/or knowledge to guide you. At some point, you don't even realize you are doing it anymore, but you are. It won't always work out, but you almost always will keep trying to operate on this level. Whether that is a good or bad thing only you can decide, but it is highly probable that you will keep doing it.
It is the nature of people, and game players.